mwaha

Well, yeah, I do (I also want the no-hat items, not sure how that works) but a hat would be nice

Even ppz whove idled for more than 100 hours only have 3-4 hats.

Idling doesnt increase the hat rate, so if you've played 100 hours theres no difference between that and idling. I've got about 25 hours of hat release game play and have a hat, stewarts got about the same as me and has 3 hats... Its totally random, Will could be idling forever and not get a hat...

i no but x amount of hats =x amount of hours
so therfore
+hour = + hats

X ftw

Not necasararly (cba to spell), i dont quite think you are getting hold of the RANDOM thing, yeah more hours gives you more chances but you could still fail them all. On average if you took all the players yeah the more hours the more hats but some people get loads some get none, hence random...

but the more chances RULE !!

Ahh but at the moment you could be one of the them people that get none, as you have no hats we must presume that. UNLUCKY!

L2Probability.

Lets assume that every hour you get one drop (makes the maths easier, and is approximately correct at 4 chances per hour and 25% chance of success), with a chance of hat drop (any hat) being 0.5% total. Now, if you played for 100 hours, your chance to get no hats would be;

0.995^100 = 0.605 (61%)

1 hat
0.995^99*0.005*100 = 0.304 (30%)

2hats
0.995^98*0.005^2*4950 = 0.0757 (7.6%)

x hats
0.995^(100-x)*0.005^x*100!/(x*(100-x)!)

x hats in n hours
0.995^(n-x)*0.005^x*n!/(x*(n-x)!)

(where ^ is power, * is multiplication, ! is factorial and / is division look up the binomial distribution for more information).

Still quite a significant chance of not getting any hats after 100 hours.

In fact, to have a 90% chance of getting one or more hats (ie, a 10% chance to have no hats) you would need to play/idle for 460 hours (nearly 3 weeks solid). For a 99% chance that goes up to 919 hours (over a month solid).

Disclaimer: This maths is based on statistics and assumptions that may or may not be correct.

Some of that jidy, and some hardcore maths there skillers

Hardcore? Pah, barely even AS level statistics, probably do it at GCSE, tbh, can't remember.

Im now doing GCSE maths and yeah its the sort of thing we do...

So by 'drop' do you mean they are randomly awarded, or they actually drop from people and you have to pick them up in the true sense of the word (like on EverQuest, a real mans game).

Randomly awarded.

Thanks for clearing that up Met. These shall no longer ever be called drops.

Not without racking brains for quite a while.:p

The binomial distribution is an incredibly simple bit of stats.

The idle server filled up last night xD, so there's now more slots

Maybe in your lower group XD

pitty that i still have moar hats?

¬_¬

stop gloating